Título: Um modelo de regressão por vetores de suporte para previsão da diferença de gols em partidas de futebol
Autores: Ferreira, Mateus; Feitosa, Eduardo; Cristo, Marco; Santos, Eulanda
Resumo: Predict the difference of goals in football matches is a problem of great interest to the sports punters of the handicap mode. This predictive capability is also important in preparing teams for the second round of a confrontation in knockout tournaments. Furthermore, it has been demonstrated that statistical information about the past performance of football teams correlate better with the goal difference than with the score. This paper employs a machine learning model to predict the goal difference in the outcome of football matches. It was attained a RMSE of 1.267822 using the support vector regression technique. For comparison with a reference model, it was also computed the quality of the predictions of the winners of matches. In this case, the obtained accuracy of 60.53% was higher than the 55.26% accuracy achieved by the reference model.
Palavras-chave: Machine learning; support vector regression; football; goal difference
Código DOI: 10.21528/CBIC2013-049
Artigo em pdf: bricsccicbic2013_submission_49.pdf
Arquivo BibTex: bricsccicbic2013_submission_49.bib